• Bitcoin may drop toward $40K as four-year cycle signals final discount before next bull run begins.

• Ali Martinez identifies $41,500 to $45,000 buy zone, historically forming base ahead of major rallies globally.

  

• Retail Bitcoin demand collapses as transactions below $10,000 fall, signaling weaker participation from smaller investors today.

  

Bitcoin moved higher on Tuesday, rising about 3% after President Donald Trump announced a five-day pause in planned strikes on Iran. The relief rally pushed Bitcoin above $70K. Despite this, the bitcoin price remains roughly 45% below its all-time high of $126,000.

Meanwhile, top chart analyst Ali Martinez predicts the Bitcoin price to drop to $40K by Oct 2026.?

Bitcoin Price Cycle Signals Drop Toward $40K

According to a chart shared by crypto analyst Ali Martinez, Bitcoin continues to follow a repeating four-year cycle seen since 2011. The structure shows that each bull run begins only after the price enters a final discount phase. The current setup places Bitcoin near that stage.

However, the chart outlines a potential buy zone between $41,500 and $45,000. This range previously acted as a base before major upward moves. 

If the fractal holds, Bitcoin may decline toward the $40,000 region before forming a bottom. Martinez also pointed to a projected entry window between October 6 and October 16, 2026.

Historically, similar timing marked the end of consolidation and the beginning of a new four-year cycle. Once Bitcoin exits this phase, price action has typically accelerated quickly.

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Retail Bitcoin Demand Collapses as Small Investors Exit

Another warning comes from declining retail activity. Crypto analyst Crypto Tice noted that transactions below $10,000 are falling sharply, showing smaller investors are stepping away from the market. 

The 30-day demand trend for retail participants has turned negative, indicating weakening participation.

Earlier Bitcoin cycles show that retail traders often exit during late-stage corrections. Volume tends to shrink before price forms a base. 

Once retail demand returns, broader rallies usually follow.

The current setup creates mixed signals. Bitcoin is recovering in the short term, supported by easing geopolitical tension, but participation from smaller investors remains weak. This combination often appears during accumulation phases.

If historical cycles repeat, Bitcoin may still face downside toward the $40,000 area before forming a base.

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FAQs

Major risks include global recessions, tighter crypto regulations, declining liquidity, or a sustained breakdown below key support levels.

Bitcoin price forecasts for 2030 range from $380K to $900K, driven by scarcity, long-term adoption, and expanding institutional participation.

While uncertain, many long-term projections suggest Bitcoin could exceed $1 million by 2050 if it becomes a global store of value.

Bitcoin’s fixed supply makes it attractive as an inflation hedge, especially during currency debasement and long-term economic uncertainty.