$XRPis approaching a critical technical juncture that could test investor conviction.

Analyst ChartNerd warns that most retail holders may struggle to endure what comes next before a potential long-term breakout.

At the time of writing, $XRPtrades around $1.45 after a recent push toward $1.60, maintaining short-term strength despite market uncertainty. However, new chart analysis suggests the path forward may not be smooth.

Key Points

Q4 “Triangle Crossroads” Signals Possible Shakeout

According to ChartNerd, $XRPis moving toward a multi-year “triangle crossroads” formation, where long-term ascending support meets descending resistance.

This structure, visible on the macro chart, points to a decisive moment expected around Q4 2026. While such formations often precede major breakouts, the analyst cautions that a final shakeout could come first.

He suggests $XRPcould drop to the $0.70 to $0.80 range before any sustained expansion. In particular, ChartNerd argues for a 7X price surge toward $10 or higher after the $0.7 retest.

The projected move implies a deep correction that could force weaker hands out of the market before a stronger bullish phase begins.

Gaussian Channel History Points to $0.73 Retest

In a separate analysis, ChartNerd highlighted a repeating pattern using the Gaussian Channel on the monthly timeframe.

Historically, every time $XRPtaps the upper Gaussian Channel (GC) regression band, it eventually retraces to the mid-band. In the current cycle, $XRPhas already touched the upper band but has yet to revisit the mid-level.

That mid GC band currently sits around $0.73, reinforcing the possibility of a deeper pullback.

The analyst noted that while March could still bring short-term volatility or upside, historical patterns suggest that “history often rhymes,” hinting that a correction phase may still be incomplete.

$XRPResistance Levels Still in Focus

Despite the bearish warning, $XRP’s recent recovery remains notable. The asset has rebounded strongly from earlier lows. However, major resistance zones at $1.80, $2.00, and $2.40 remain unbroken. Previous rejections around these levels continue to define $XRP’s current structure.

Until $XRPclears these barriers, analysts argue that downside risks, including a move toward sub-$1 levels, remain in play.

In the near term, $XRPis consolidating under $1.50, showing signs of stability. This could lead to another breakout attempt if momentum builds.

Ultimately, $XRPsits at a crossroads, one that could either confirm a bullish breakout or trigger the kind of correction that, as ChartNerd suggests, many retail investors may not be prepared to withstand. For context, a drop to $0.7 from the current level would mark a massive 51% drawdown.

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