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On April 15, Trump warned that he would fire Fed Chair Jerome Powell if he does not resign, and that the Justice Department investigation will continue. Treasury Secretary Becerra remains uncertain whether Wash will be confirmed by May 16. Polymarket shows a 43% probability of Wash being confirmed as the new Fed Chair by May 15. Market participants are monitoring how these developments affect risk-on assets. Some analysts connect the political turmoil to potential CFT enforcement actions.

BlockBeats report, April 15: President Trump, in an interview with Fox, stated that if Federal Reserve Chair Powell does not leave office on time, he will be fired, and added that he will not abandon the Department of Justice’s investigation into Powell. Trump said: “If he doesn’t leave on time, I’ll have to fire him. I’ve held off firing him so far. I want to fire him, but I hate causing controversy. I’d prefer no controversy. But he will be fired.”

Powell’s term as Fed chair expires in May, but his term as a governor runs until 2028. Powell previously stated that if his successor is not confirmed by May, he will serve as acting chair. Trump allies had hoped Powell would also step down as a governor by then, but Powell said he has no intention of resigning until the Justice Department’s investigation into a renovation project is “truly and fully concluded.” Trump, meanwhile, has hinted at no plans to end the investigation, saying, “It must be thoroughly investigated.”

Additionally, U.S. Treasury Secretary Bentsen just stated that it is uncertain whether Wash will be confirmed by May 16. Everyone is encouraged to work toward getting Wash confirmed to the Federal Reserve in May.

According to PolyBeats, the probability that Wash will be officially confirmed as Fed Chair before May 15 is 43% on the prediction market Polymarket.