Polymarket, a leading prediction market platform, has reported over $29 million in trading volume for the Best Picture category ahead of the 2026 Academy Awards. "One War After Another" is currently the frontrunner with a 76% probability of winning. In other categories, Michael B. Jordan leads the Best Actor race with a 52% probability, while Paul Thomas Anderson is favored for Best Director at 93%. Jessie Buckley is the top contender for Best Actress with a 97% probability. In the supporting categories, Amy Madigan and Sean Penn lead with probabilities of 52% and 73%, respectively. "Fight Again" is the favorite for Best Photography at 73%, and "Sinners" is leading the Best Original Screenplay category with a 96% probability.