Bitcoin price action faces a potential shift as $23 billion in BTC options set to expire on December 26 could trigger a volatility spike. Implied volatility has dropped to 44%, with traders adopting defensive positions ahead of the expiry. Key January events, including MSCI’s index decision and call-overwriting flows, may amplify volatility indicators. Put-heavy flows and long gamma dealer positions have so far kept price action stable through year-end.

Citing CoinRepublic, Bitcoin is entering the final weeks of 2025 with approximately $23 billion in BTC options set to expire on December 26, marking the largest-ever expiry event. The expiry is expected to reset market structure and potentially trigger a volatility spike in early 2026. Implied volatility has compressed to 44% as traders adopt a defensive stance ahead of the reset. Two key January catalysts—MSCI’s index decision and renewed call-overwriting flows—could further amplify price swings. Defensive positioning, including put-heavy flows and long gamma dealer positions, has kept volatility in check through year-end.