Bitcoin news: The price briefly rose above $76,000 on Wednesday, but analysts caution that a new bull market remains unconfirmed. Using the TMM metric, active holders have remained below their average cost for 75 days, with an average loss of 5%. A sustained move above $78,013 is required to turn profitable. Altcoins to watch may also face downward pressure if Bitcoin fails to break key resistance levels. The 365-day growth rate of the realized market cap has been negative for 105 days, with weak 30-day changes.

ChainThink reports, according to Cointelegraph, that Bitcoin briefly surged above $76,000 during Wednesday trading, but Glassnode analyst CryptoViz.art, citing on-chain data, noted that it is still too early to declare the start of a new bull market.

Glassnode analysts measure the average cost basis of active Bitcoin investors using the True Market Mean (TMM). Bitcoin has remained below this indicator for 75 days since breaking below it on January 31, with current active holders experiencing an average unrealized loss of approximately 5% and a peak loss magnitude of 20%.

TMM is currently at $78,013; reclaiming this level is a key milestone for active investors to return to profitability.

The analyst cited 10 similar breakdowns since 2016, with durations ranging from 2 days to over 11 months, and the deepest declines occurred during the 2018–2019 and 2022–2023 cycles, reaching 57%.

He noted that 75 days is still in the early stage; the previous cycles in 2018 and 2022 did not bottom out until months 5 to 9, and this signal is not a "safe signal"—close monitoring is required.

Bitcoin researcher Axel Adler Jr. noted that the 365-day growth rate of Bitcoin’s market capitalization relative to its realized capitalization has been negative for 105 consecutive trading days, with the latest reading at -0.000652, indicating the market has failed to attract sufficient new capital to support price appreciation.

The 30-day realized market cap change was also weak, with only seven days showing positive inflows throughout 2026, all concentrated in mid-January; after January 23, it remained negative, slightly improving from a low of approximately -0.54% in early April to -0.32%.

Year-to-date, the realized market cap has decreased from $1.12 trillion to $1.08 trillion, a decline of 3.23%.

Adler Jr. stated that recent improvements only indicate a slowing of capital outflows, not a bullish reversal; a confirmed trend reversal requires both indicators to turn positive simultaneously and remain so consistently.