Bitcoin’s path to $100k hinges on Kevin Warsh’s Fed bid and the CLARITY Act’s shrinking window, as Washington rewires crypto market structure.

Bitcoin (BTC) at $100,000 is back on the table if its recent rally holds, but the outcome hinges on Washington’s next moves on the Federal Reserve and the Clarity Act. A crypto?friendly Fed chair and a comprehensive US market?structure bill could cement the surge — or fizzle out, if politics get in the way.

Bitcoin has climbed about 10% over the past two weeks to trade near $78,000, even as it remains roughly 38% below its October peak while the S&P 500 has pushed to fresh all?time highs. Polymarket traders now price just a 28% chance that the next big catalyst — Kevin Warsh’s confirmation as Fed chair by May 15 — actually happens, down from 92% in March.

The $100,000 level is the “next magnet” for Bitcoin if momentum continues, according to Luca K?ymen, investment strategist at Sygnum Bank, who told DL News the “structural story is where we see the bigger signal.” He argued that “clearer bank access, no CBDC competition, and a chair who treats crypto as embedded rather than exotic is a bigger deal than a quarter or two of marginally more hawkish tone.”

Fed regime change risk

US President Donald Trump has already banned a central bank digital currency via an executive order titled “Strengthening American Leadership in Digital Financial Technology,” blocking federal agencies from creating or endorsing a retail CBDC. Trump has nominated former Fed governor Kevin Warsh — widely seen as a crypto bull — to replace Jerome Powell when his term ends on May 15.

During his Senate confirmation hearing this week, Warsh told lawmakers that cryptocurrencies are already part of the “fabric” of the US financial system and called a US CBDC a “bad policy choice” he would not support as chair. K?ymen said Warsh would be “the most crypto?literate chair in Fed history,” adding that he “understands the technology and has publicly called Bitcoin a disciplining force on bad policy.”

Still, Warsh’s confirmation is far from assured. Republican Senator Thom Tillis has raised concerns about market stability under Warsh, and a hold from his office has helped drag Polymarket odds for confirmation by May 15 down to 28%.

Clarity Act window narrows

The Clarity Act, billed as the most consequential US crypto market?structure bill to date, would lock in clearer rules for exchanges, stablecoins, and digital?asset custody. Galaxy Digital head of research Alex Thorn has warned that “if the markup slips past mid?May, the probability of enactment in 2026 will drop sharply,” as the Senate juggles Iran debates, Department of Homeland Security funding, and a packed nominations calendar.

In a recent note, Thorn put passage odds around 50% this year, saying the bill risks falling off the agenda entirely after midterms if it misses the current window. Polymarket traders now give the Clarity Act roughly a mid?40s percentage chance of being signed into law in 2026, down from more than 80% earlier in the year.

For K?ymen, early passage would lock in a structural win. “Passage of the Clarity Act before the midterms would finally provide the market structure framework US crypto markets need,” he said, arguing that, alongside potential tweaks to bank leverage rules, the package would improve financial conditions for Bitcoin and broader crypto assets.

Crypto market movers

Bitcoin is trading sideways over the past 24 hours at around $78,049, according to price data from crypto.news. Ethereum has slipped roughly 1.9% over the same period to about $2,344.

In a previous crypto.news story, analysts highlighted how Fed personnel shifts have repeatedly realigned Bitcoin’s macro narrative. Another crypto.news story examined Trump’s CBDC ban and its implications for private digital assets, while a third story explored why the Clarity Act is seen as a last shot at comprehensive US crypto legislation before midterms.

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