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The probability of a U.S.-Iran ceasefire before May 15 has fallen to 37% on Polymarket, marking a 45% decline in the past 24 hours. The event contract, which has seen over $107 million in trading volume, stipulates that a formal ceasefire agreement must be publicly confirmed by both governments to resolve as "Yes." Recent U.S. military strikes on Kharg Island, targeting over 50 sites, have influenced market sentiment, with Vice President Vance emphasizing that these actions do not indicate a strategic shift. The deadline for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, set by Trump, remains at 8 p.m. Eastern Time on Tuesday.

POLY-2.12%

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