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deadzone rogue best build - Arthur Hayes: Q1 Trading Halts Amid AI Unemployment and Iran War Concerns

By | 2026-06-10 21:23:21 | 67322 min read
Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, said his fund Maelstrom saw minimal trading in Q1 2026 due to AI-driven job losses and the war in Iran. He outlined three scenarios and their potential impact on Bitcoin and the global economy. Hayes warned of a deflationary collapse in the U.S. and dollar instability. He noted that the risk-to-reward ratio favors caution. Support and resistance levels for Bitcoin could shift depending on geopolitical outcomes.

Author: Arthur Hayes

Compiled by DeepChain TechFlow

deadzone rogue best build - Arthur Hayes: Q1 Trading Halts Amid AI Unemployment and Iran War Concerns

Shenchao Overview: BitMEX founder Hayes rarely admitted that he barely traded in the first quarter. He believes the market stands on the edge of two cliffs: AI could destroy American white-collar jobs, triggering a deflationary collapse, while a war with Iran might completely rewrite the dollar’s dominance. Bitcoin may decline first but will ultimately outperform all major assets.

deadzone rogue best build - Arthur Hayes: Q1 Trading Halts Amid AI Unemployment and Iran War Concerns

(This article represents the author's personal views and should not be used as a basis for investment decisions or considered as investment or trading advice.)

Want to learn more? Follow the author on Instagram, LinkedIn, and X.

Because Maelstrom Fund had very light trading activity in the first quarter, many brokers occasionally reached out to me asking for my views on the market and what they could do for us. My response was: "This is a non-tradable zone." Aside from gradually increasing our long positions on Hyperliquid, we executed almost no trades during the first quarter. Two factors combined to create a trading dead zone—至少 for our pure long positions.

The surge in AI agents will destroy the career prospects of ordinary knowledge workers in Western developed economies with flexible labor markets—primarily the United States—triggering a deflationary financial collapse. I wrote about this topic in my article “This Is Fine.” Since the publication of that article, with the support of Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu, U.S. President Trump has launched a selective war against Iran to turn it into the latest dumping ground. The war has now lasted nearly seven weeks, and the only critical question remaining is how the flow of goods and cargo through the Strait of Hormuz will be managed.

I always clarify that when I express views on war or geopolitics, I’m simply a ski enthusiast and a crypto player who loves house music. I have no insider information on what wars or global leaders might do. But I can read mainstream propaganda narratives and use AI agents to perform simple calculations based on publicly available information. I try to filter out the noise and focus on what matters for my portfolio. Fortunately, I don’t live in the Levant or the Middle East, so my life and freedom are not at risk.

In my simplified worldview, there are three scenarios to consider; technically four, but the fourth—nuclear war—is not investable, so it’s not worth addressing. I’ll present each one, then explore how they might impact Bitcoin’s price. I don’t know the probability of each scenario, but what I want to determine is whether there exists a portfolio allocation that outperforms hydrocarbons and their derivatives—such as food and fuel—in the best-case scenario, and while underperforming hydrocarbons in the worst-case scenario, still outperforms all major asset classes.

Scenario One: Return to Normal

In this scenario, the war ends immediately, and the pre-war status quo is restored. However, the long-term trend of replacing expensive digital symbol-manipulating knowledge workers with cheaper, more efficient AI agents continues. The U.S. economy is most vulnerable, as approximately 70% of its GDP is driven by consumer spending. Consumers finance materialistic consumption through bank credit, and these loans become assets on banks’ balance sheets. If the average knowledge worker’s ability to repay debt disappears, these banks would effectively become insolvent and require massive central bank money printing.

Scenario Two: Tehran Toll Booth

Under these circumstances, the U.S. military is unwilling or unable to prevent Iran from restricting vessel passage through the Strait of Hormuz. Iran has fulfilled its pledge to allow "friendly" vessels to pass through the strait by paying $2 million in renminbi, cryptocurrency, sanctioned U.S. dollars, or other diplomatic arrangements. The worst-case scenario for U.S. financial hegemony is that countries now must find ways to acquire renminbi. Given that most nations run trade deficits with China, the only viable way to raise large amounts of renminbi is to sell U.S. dollar assets—such as U.S. Treasury bonds or American tech stocks—purchase physical gold, and then sell the gold on the Shanghai or Hong Kong gold markets in exchange for renminbi. Among the top ten economies by GDP, only Brazil and Russia maintain trade surpluses with China, ranking ninth and tenth respectively. In contrast, the United States has the largest trade deficit of all economies, financed by an equally massive capital account surplus. However, when countries sell dollar assets to acquire renminbi or cover commodity shortages by paying extremely high prices in spot markets, the empire’s capital surplus must inevitably decline mathematically. The financialized U.S. economy relies on foreign capital to finance government spending; without it, the books cannot balance. Ultimately, falling bond prices or rising yields, coupled with declining stock prices, will necessitate money printing to fund government expenditures.

Scenario 2.5: Flag Blockade

Interestingly, after U.S. and Iranian negotiators failed to reach a permanent ceasefire agreement, on Sunday, April 12, Trump announced that the U.S. Navy would blockade all vessels entering or exiting the strait. Perhaps this blockade will devolve into a pirate baron’s toll system, where ships must pay double passage fees to both Iran and the U.S.—two rogue actors—while shouting “Allahu Akbar” and “Hallelujah.” Or perhaps too many exemptions are granted afterward to one country or another, rendering the blockade nothing more than a moldy Swiss cheese. The point remains: if holding U.S. dollars doesn’t guarantee pirates won’t sink your ship, why hold dollars at all?

Scenario Three: The Empire Strikes Back

In this scenario, the U.S. Air Force and Navy did what they were supposed to do: destroying the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps’ ability to disrupt shipping in the Strait of Hormuz through punitive long-range bombings. The strait reopened, allowing all vessels to pass safely without additional costs. The restoration of the powerful empire’s dominance eliminated the need for countries to use any currency other than the U.S. dollar, as well as the necessity to bid up expensive commodities on the spot market—at least for a few days. The problem is that ending Iran’s control over the strait likely means the country’s total destruction—or, as Trump put it, “taking them back to the Stone Age.” Many Americans, raised since birth to believe Iran is the most evil nation on Earth, cheered this hardline stance against their top adversary. Yet, destroying Iran in this manner means that in its final breaths, it will carry out its threat to take down other goods and energy production across the Gulf region with it. Spices will cease to flow, and global central banks will have no choice but to print money to save the global financial system as commodity prices surge universally.

If you live in certain broken countries, the local currency will experience hyperinflation against the dollar or ruble. The U.S. and Russia will be the only major swing producers capable of filling the gap left by the Middle East’s devastation. Famine and widespread social unrest will follow. So, while your Bitcoin may be worth an infinite number of units of some worthless fiat currency, your well-being will face serious risk if you cannot escape in time.

Before I continue discussing Bitcoin’s performance in each scenario, let’s quickly review some charts to provide visual evidence for my points.

Return to normal

Since I detailed this situation in my article "This Is Fine," let me republish some of the charts and tables provided in that article:

In summary, the severity of the AI agent deflationary collapse is comparable to the 2008 U.S. subprime mortgage crisis.

Consumer loan delinquency rates have risen, and the layoff spree hasn't even truly begun.

Toll station in Tehran

Essentially, if this happens, it would mark the end of the petrodollar and the rise of a new global reserve currency or basket of currencies. Currently, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps is very flexible with payment terms. But if they solidify their control over the strait, why continue accepting dollar payments when the United States is doing everything it can to restrict their access to the dollar? Ultimately, I believe they will not allow payments in dollars. The renminbi and gold are likely to become the two primary currencies for sovereign trade.

If goods cannot be shipped without paying in RMB, why save in USD? Given that most major economies run trade deficits with China, the only way to acquire RMB is to sell USD, buy gold, and then purchase RMB. From now on, countries must save their trade surpluses in gold rather than U.S. Treasuries or stocks.

To highlight the growing use of the renminbi in trade, I’d like to focus on several charts published by Luke Gromen that reveal a de facto renminbi-gold standard quietly emerging.

Step 1: Sell U.S. dollar assets (treasury bonds) and buy gold.

Since the start of the war, foreign holdings of securities at the Federal Reserve have decreased net by $63 billion. I use this as a directional proxy for foreign ownership of U.S. Treasuries and other dollar-denominated securities such as stocks.

What did the seller do with these U.S. dollars?

Non-monetary gold was the United States' largest export in 4 of the past 5 months, up 342% year-over-year.

They used these dollars to buy gold and export it out of the United States. That was the end of American manufacturing revival; the only things leaving the U.S. were relics of barbarism. Sorry to all Trump supporters who thought they’d get their high-paying factory jobs back. Another presidential term left blue-collar workers screwed without lubrication.

Step 2: Sell gold for CNY

The Swiss refinery receives gold from the United States and recasts it into bars suitable for delivery to China.

Step 3: Pay the Tehran toll fee

Treasury Secretary Bessent was serious when he said, "Use the dollar or face sanctions again." Due to sanctions imposed by the United States about fifteen years ago, Iran has been unable to use the SWIFT payment network. Transferring renminbi into the hands of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps requires the use of China’s CIPS messaging system. As you can see, transaction volumes have surged significantly since the war began.

This series of charts shows the flow from selling U.S. dollar assets to buying gold, ultimately funding payments in renminbi to Tehran or other suppliers. It doesn’t matter that the U.S. dollar remains the dominant currency in trade. Markets are forward-looking, so the accelerating pace of renminbi usage in global trade matters more than its currently lower absolute usage compared to the dollar. Investors can protect their portfolios by divesting from dollar assets before the consensus accepts the existence of a new monetary system. Although the British pound was technically the global reserve currency until the 1944 Bretton Woods Agreement, the U.S. dollar effectively replaced it as the global reserve currency in the early 20th century, as the U.S. economy became the world’s most productive. In 2026, the United States runs trade deficits with the world’s most productive economies: China, Japan, South Korea, Germany, Taiwan, and others. Most countries run trade deficits with China. Let me emphasize this again: if you have to pay in renminbi to those stone-age turban-wearers just to receive goods, what the hell is the point of holding dollars?

Star-Spangled Blockade and Imperial Counterstrike

To determine whether the strait is open or closed, refer to the chart above or generate a similar version using your preferred charting tool. The top panel shows the WTI futures prices for May 2026 (CL1, white line) versus October 2026 (CL6, gold line). I use WTI because this benchmark is most relevant to U.S. gasoline consumers. Trump will only de-escalate the situation if gasoline prices remain high leading up to the mid-November elections. The bottom panel displays the spread between the two contracts (far month minus near month); the curve is inverted. Since the far-month oil price has risen less than the near-month price, the market expects a significant increase in oil flows through the strait. If this occurs, the spread will widen, as the near-month price will plummet. But if the spread narrows due to a rise in far-month prices, the global economy will descend into chaos. Ignore the rhetoric between Trump and the Iranian Revolutionary Guard—focus on this chart.

Quantity and Price of the Asset

After the war began, the two-year Treasury yield (white line) rose far more than the effective federal funds rate (gold line), indicating that markets expected the Fed to raise rates to combat rising energy inflation.

It is crucial to form a judgment on this, as I believe we may enter a situation in which major central banks, including the Federal Reserve, simultaneously raise interest rates while printing money—either directly or through the commercial banking system. As wars drive up food and energy prices, capable politicians will subsidize the key input costs of the economy. Failing to do so could trigger social unrest or famine. However, to prevent inflation from spreading to all goods and services, central banks must raise interest rates to destroy demand and dampen activity in credit-sensitive sectors of the economy. Any entity borrowing to purchase goods and services will reduce spending if the cost of credit rises.

If central banks stop there, my prediction for Bitcoin is straightforward: in an environment where people cut all spending except on food and energy, Bitcoin’s price will fall. But every country—whether an ally or adversary under the U.S.-led peace order—must increase defense spending and stockpile critical goods. Do you want your country to be like Australia, relying almost 100% on China for refined hydrocarbons? When war broke out, China halted all exports, and Australia had less than a month’s worth of reserves. They had to turn to Singapore, and I’m sure they paid astronomical prices for jet fuel; otherwise, all those Australian locals would have been stranded indefinitely! I know some of you will cheer this outcome—especially Japanese skiers.

Manufacturing bombs, especially nuclear weapons, to protect oneself from being turned into a bin nation by the skinny-tie prophet, as well as stockpiling goods, requires the government to significantly increase borrowing. If domestic private investors cannot or are unwilling to purchase these junk government bonds, the central bank and/or commercial banking system will print money to buy these bonds, thereby increasing the fiat money supply.

When reading my predictions about Bitcoin’s price movements under various scenarios, keep this dynamic in mind: you must determine whether the quantity of currency or its price is more important. Otherwise, you will not be able to understand the seemingly contradictory price movements of different risk assets.

Return to normal

After the situation returns to its pre-war state, Bitcoin may experience a modest rebound. However, the AI agent deflationary bomb continues to tick beneath the surface. Bitcoin will not rise significantly until the Federal Reserve provides the necessary liquidity to fill the black hole created by consumer credit defaults on bank balance sheets. This is not to say it cannot surge to $80,000–$90,000, but for me, deploying new fiat capital requires a clear green light from the Fed. Given that I am already heavily long—as I manage a purely long-only book—I feel better seeing higher net value figures on my screen, but the risk-reward ratio is insufficient to justify going fully leveraged or shifting my portfolio to maximum risk exposure.

I don’t know how long it will take for the banking system to collapse. But every week I read stories of companies laying off large numbers of knowledge workers because AI agents are more efficient than humans, alongside other reports of rising consumer loan delinquency rates.

Here’s an anecdote. I recently had a conversation with a founder friend who runs a successful crypto gaming company—he’s an OG. We started discussing how AI is impacting his business. As someone trained in computer engineering, he sat down over the 2025 Christmas holidays and used the latest Claude model to try building something. He was stunned by how quickly he could produce deliverable code, and months later, he took his top engineers to an offsite to discuss how AI would transform the business. He tasked them with creating a workflow that allows AI agents to code around the clock. They automated every step, including code reviews, so that every morning, tested, ready-to-review code awaited senior engineers. One person, with support from an AI agent team, completed a six-month roadmap in just four days. After this meeting, my friend decided his company had to immediately overhaul its workflows—so 50% of his staff will be let go in the coming weeks. In the age of AI agents, general engineers are redundant, but top talent, empowered by AI agents, can become 10 to 100 times more productive.

As models acquire more domain-specific expertise, all mediocre knowledge workers face the risk of unemployment. Unfortunately, despite unemployment insurance, data from the BLS and the St. Louis Fed show that the median annual maximum unemployment benefit across U.S. states is approximately $28,000—pale in comparison to the $85,000 to $90,000 median salary of knowledge workers. With no alternative but to default on consumer credit repayments to banks, the fraudulent fractional reserve fiat banking system has reached its end.

Bitcoin (gold line) versus the U.S. Software SaaS ETF IGV (white line)

Nevertheless, after the ceasefire, U.S. SaaS software stocks resumed their downward trend, while Bitcoin held its ground and rebounded. This is a welcome break in correlation, but it’s still too early to conclude that Bitcoin has seen through the deflationary pressures on AI-related knowledge workers and is forecasting a significant rally.

Toll station in Tehran

As countries sell U.S. dollar assets to raise renminbi for toll payments, bond and stock prices will decline. This could be a slow process, since other payment options besides the renminbi are currently available. However, due to the leverage embedded in the system, even a small snowflake falling could trigger a financial avalanche, as selling begets more selling, volatility rises, and markets freeze. At that point, monetary authorities will be forced to intervene and print money. The key indicator to watch is the MOVE Index, which measures volatility in the U.S. bond market. When the index rises above 130, some form of money printing will occur.

As volatility rises and U.S. large-cap tech stocks decline, Bitcoin will find it difficult to rebound significantly. As investors reduce portfolio risk due to higher volatility and lower prices, they will sell Bitcoin to meet margin calls. Bitcoin will only rise when conditions become severe enough for bailout expectations to become consensus.

Wait for Bezos and/or whoever is the Fed chair to press the printing press button. The risk-reward ratio of trying to front-run this situation isn’t worth it. I hope Bitcoin holds at $60,000 during a full-scale TradMarket financial collapse. If Bitcoin tests and holds this level a second time, I would generally lean toward increasing risk.

Star-Spangled Blockade and the Empire Strikes Back

As backend oil futures prices surge rapidly to catch up with spot or nearby prices, the global economy will suffer severe damage. At some point, demand destruction will hit government bonds and U.S. stock prices. As before, the initial reaction will be a decline in Bitcoin. Once the over-leveraged Western financial system collapses, the printing presses will be activated. If the lockdown ends ultimately through punitive airstrikes against Iran, followed by Iran destroying all energy production in the Persian Gulf, this could lead to the destruction of the Iranian state. A Bitcoin rebound fueled by money printing may be brief, as the destruction of the Iranian state would significantly increase the likelihood of World War III.

Portfolio Construction

As a non-leveraged, purely long-term investor, Maelstrom allows time and compounding to work in my favor. Bitcoin’s slight outperformance against IGV over the past few days has been encouraging. This motivates me to reconsider my bearish outlook on Bitcoin’s price, despite accelerating financial deflation driven by AI-powered knowledge work. Currently, the only assets I’m willing to increase my exposure to are gold and $HYPE (Hyperliquid’s governance token). HIP-4 will launch in a few weeks, and I anticipate it will capture significant market share in the prediction markets vertical from Polymarket and Kalshi.

In addition, I will pray to Satoshi Nakamoto every day, hoping they can influence the minds of our global political elite and convince them to take psychedelics instead of dropping bombs.

Want to learn more? Follow the author on Instagram, LinkedIn, and X.

Visit the Korean version: Naver

[1] The trade data used is from 2024 to 2025.

[2] IRGC - Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps

Source:Show originalDisclaimer: The information on this page may have been obtained from third parties and does not necessarily reflect the views or opinions of KuCoin. This content is provided for general informational purposes only, without any representation or warranty of any kind, nor shall it be construed as financial or investment advice. KuCoin shall not be liable for any errors or omissions, or for any outcomes resulting from the use of this information.Investments in digital assets can be risky. Please carefully evaluate the risks of a product and your risk tolerance based on your own financial circumstances. For more information, please refer to our Terms of Use and Risk Disclosure.

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