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Sovereign investment in Bitcoin is accelerating—just not always in the most direct way. In a new report, Standard Chartered Bank says indirect exposure via Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) is quietly increasing among government entities, reinforcing the bank’s long-standing price prediction that Bitcoin will reach $500,000 before President Donald Trump leaves office in 2029.

“The latest 13F data from the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) supports our core thesis that Bitcoin (BTC) will reach the $500,000 level before Trump leaves office as it attracts a wider range of institutional buyers,” wrote Geoffrey Kendrick, Standard Chartered’s global head of digital assets research. “As more investors gain access to the asset and as volatility falls, we believe portfolios will migrate towards their optimal level from an underweight starting position in BTC.”

Q1 13F filings revealed a slowdown in direct bitcoin ETF buying—Wisconsin’s state fund exited its entire 3,400 BTC-equivalent IBIT position—while government-linked purchases of MSTR shares were on the rise. Abu Dhabi’s Mubadala, for instance, upped its IBIT exposure to 5,000 BTC equivalent, but Kendrick says the bigger story is elsewhere.

“We believe that in some cases, MSTR holdings by government entities reflect a desire to gain Bitcoin exposure where local regulations do not allow direct BTC holdings,” he said.

France and Saudi Arabia took first-time MSTR positions in Q1. Meanwhile, Norway’s Government Pension Fund, the Swiss National Bank, and South Korea’s public funds each added exposure equivalent to 700 BTC. U.S. retirement funds in states like California and New York added a combined 1,000 BTC equivalent via MSTR. Kendrick called the trend “very encouraging.”

“The quarterly 13F data is the best test of our thesis that BTC will attract new institutional buyer types as the market matures, helping the price reach our USD 500,000 level,” Kendrick said. “When institutions buy Bitcoin, prices tend to rise.”

This isn’t Kendrick’s first bullish call. Last month, he admitted his prior $120K forecast for Q2 2025 was “too low,” citing surging inflows into U.S. spot BTC ETFs—totaling $5.3 billion over just three weeks. At the time, Kendrick revised his 2025 year-end target to $200,000.

Standard Chartered’s latest analysis shows that Bitcoin’s role in institutional portfolios is maturing beyond tech volatility correlation—now increasingly seen as a macro hedge. “It is now all about flows,” Kendrick said. “And flows are coming in many forms.” 

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