• BTC has been trading below $75k for weeks, even as whales and institutions increase their holdings of the coin.

• The sell wall is the result of macroeconomic tensions, causing a rebalancing of buys with dumps.

  

• The key event to watch for is the Fed’s interest rate decision due in a week.

  

Bitcoin (BTC) has been consistently trading below $75,000 for the past 35 days, after falling below this level on February 4. This month, the flagship cryptocurrency hit $74,031 following optimism around favorable regulations, but has since pulled back to trade at $70,525 at press time.

Source: CoinMarketCap

The Bitcoin $75K sell wall

Several recent developments should have pushed the price above this resistance, including a surge in whale buys and steady institutional accumulation.

Blockchain analytics platform CryptoQuant shows that normalized order volumes for whale trades ($1M+) spiked this month. Whale holdings now amount to 3.204 million BTC – the highest accumulation since 2024.

The Exchange Whale Ratio has also been steadily declining, signaling reduced selling pressure among large traders.

Source: CryptoQuant

Last week, digital asset investment products marked the second week of consecutive inflows at $619 million. This week, spot Bitcoin ETF inflows have already totaled $418.03 million, led by BlackRock at $295.31 million.

Bitcoin treasury companies were not left behind, with Strategy recently purchasing $1.28 billion worth of Bitcoin.

The recent drop in oil prices amid the US-Iran conflict and investor capital rotation from gold to digital assets have also contributed to BTC’s upward momentum.

Still, the $75K sell wall persists, suggesting whale selling at these prices rather than continued accumulation?as they believe the asset to have reached a peak. Market uncertainty also brews around the upcoming US Federal Reserve announcement regarding interest rates, in addition to next month’s inflationary data. The latter will factor in previous oil price surges to over $100/barrel, possibly triggering a short-term risk-off BTC sale.

BTC price forecast

BTC breaking above $72K could signal bullish recovery, with short squeezes and possible Fed interest cut fueling further upside momentum. A fall below $65K could cause a further drop towards $60K. 

Regarding the prevailing war, US President Donald Trump said it could end “soon”, but Iran dismissed these claims as nonsensical. For now, the US continues to destroy vessels deploying sea mines in the Strait of Hormuz, while Iran has labelled US Silicon Valley companies “legitimate targets” because of their links to the US military.