Internal debates within the Federal Reserve regarding interest rate policy are reportedly shifting. According to a report by The Wall Street Journal (WSJ), the long-standing question in the markets – “When will interest rate cuts begin?” – is increasingly being replaced by a debate on “Under what conditions should interest rates be raised again?”

The report claims that while expectations for interest rate cuts had strengthened in recent months, Fed officials are now acting more cautiously. According to the report, policymakers are beginning to consider not only the timing of rate cuts but also the economic conditions that would necessitate a potential rate hike.

At the last policy meeting, three regional Fed presidents reportedly explicitly disagreed with the statement that “the next step will most likely be a rate cut.” Lorie Logan stated that the direction of future interest rate decisions is unclear, adding that “the next step could be both a rate increase and a rate cut.”

As his term draws to a close, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell signaled a gradual shift in the institution’s monetary policy stance. While acknowledging that the Fed is moving away from a “dovish” approach towards a more “neutral” position, Powell stated that the communication language would be completely neutralized before any potential interest rate hikes begin.

According to the WSJ analysis, global developments are having a significant impact on this transformation. In particular, high energy prices, the crisis around the Strait of Hormuz, and increasing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are bringing inflation risks back to the forefront in the US. This situation is weakening market expectations of interest rate cuts in 2026.

*This is not investment advice.

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