ARK Invest has significantly revised its long-term outlook for Bitcoin, now projecting a bull case price target of approximately $2.4 million by 2030. The report lays out a comprehensive modeling framework based on Bitcoin’s total addressable market (TAM) potential, adoption trends, and assumptions around supply dynamics.

The updated target represents a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of ~72% between December 31, 2024 and December 31, 2030. In comparison, ARK’s base and bear case estimates stand at $1.2 million (CAGR ~53%) and $500,000 (CAGR ~32%), respectively.

“Institutional investment contributes the most to our bull case,” the report notes, emphasizing a projected penetration rate of 6.5% of the $200 trillion global market portfolio ex-gold by 2030. That share, according to ARK, is nearly double the current allocation to gold.

Referred to by some as “digital gold,” Bitcoin is increasingly recognized for its potential as a “nimbler, more transparent store-of-value”, the report states. Digital gold alone is expected to contribute more than a third to the bull case valuation, assuming Bitcoin captures 60% of gold’s $18 trillion market cap.

Emerging market demand is another major factor. “In our view, this bitcoin use case has the greatest potential for capital accrual,” ARK said, citing the asset’s ability to protect wealth from inflation and devaluation in developing economies. This segment could account for 13.5% ofthe $2.4 million valuation, assuming a 6% TAM penetration rate of emerging market monetary bases.

Further contributions stem from growing adoption by nation-state treasuries, corporate cash reserves, and a burgeoning on-chain financial services ecosystem. Notably, even conservative assumptions for on-chain services reflect a 60% CAGR, building on innovations like Layer 2 networks and WBTC.

In a supplemental analysis, ARK also applied these assumptions to Bitcoin’s “active” supply, a methodology that discounts long-held or lost coins. With a liveliness-adjusted supply basis, the bull case price target jumps from the original $1.5 million to the updated $2.4 million.

ARK concludes, “Bitcoin’s scarcity and lost supply are not reflected in most valuation models today,” suggesting further upside potential beyond the already bold forecast.

You can read the full report here.

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