With a 14.25% weekly pullback in oil prices, risk assets may look ready for a strong week.

But if that’s the base case, it might be worth thinking twice. From a technical standpoint, the April 6-13 weekly window delivered a clear reversal in oil, while Bitcoin [BTC] closed up 2.53%, marking the first such divergence since the West Asia crisis began in early March.

On the macro side, this wasn’t random price action. The divergence came after ceasefire developments briefly pushed crypto back into risk-off territory. However, a fresh post from U.S. President Donald Trump reignited market volatility after he referenced the possibility of “blockading” the Strait of Hormuz.

Source: Truth Social

The reaction was immediate. Oil prices surged 8.08% intraday, while Bitcoin continued to hover around $70k. The bigger question now is whether this is the early stage of oil moving higher as tensions around the Strait of Hormuz resurface. According to AMBCrypto, the Q1 rally provides a useful reference point here.

Technically, oil closed Q1 up 76%, marking its strongest quarterly rally in years, while Bitcoin finished the quarter down 22%. Fast forward to now, and analysts are starting to price in the possibility of an even larger oil move than Q1, with investor Peter Schiff, for example, projecting a potential run toward $150.

Naturally, the question shifts to whether Bitcoin, and crypto more broadly, could be heading into another Q1-style correction. Looking at current trader positioning and the broader macro backdrop, that scenario doesn’t seem too far-fetched. In fact, the answer may reveal itself over the course of next week alone.

Bitcoin enters liquidity flush zone amid growing macro pressure

The renewed escalation of the West Asia crisis could be just the beginning of broader macro pressure.

According to The Kobeissi Letter, U.S. markets are heading into another macro-heavy week, with three of the five key releases focused on the U.S. economy. The latest CPI print has already pushed back rate-cut expectations, while the upcoming PPI inflation data and weekly jobless claims are likely to play a major role in shaping risk sentiment going forward.

Against this backdrop, Bitcoin continues to chop sideways around $70k, creating a classic volatility buildup as both longs and shorts position for the next move. However, with macro FUD returning to the narrative, leveraged longs appear more exposed, increasing the chances of a liquidity unwind if markets lean risk-off.

Source: CoinGlass

As the chart above shows, more than $4 billion in long positions are stacked around $67k. 

Put simply, traders betting on upside have clustered liquidity near this zone. A break below it could trigger a chain reaction of liquidations. According to AMBCrypto, this is where the oil-BTC divergence starts to matter.

With geopolitical tensions escalating, rising oil prices could tighten financial conditions. If that dynamic continues, the odds of Bitcoin sweeping liquidity increase. Add this week’s macro releases into the mix, and a liquidation of the stacked long positions becomes a real possibility, meaning a move back below $65k by week’s end wouldn’t be too far-fetched.

Final Summary

• Oil strength and geopolitical tension are putting Bitcoin’s long cluster at risk of a liquidity flush.
• With a macro-heavy week ahead, a move toward $65k becomes a likely target if sentiment turns risk-off.

Source: https://ambcrypto.com/trumps-iran-remarks-spark-market-shock-will-bitcoin-drop-toward-65k/

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