Traders are overwhelmingly betting that the Federal Reserve will maintain its current interest rate at the upcoming April 29 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. The CME Fedwatch Tool indicates a 99% probability that the Fed will keep rates steady at 3.75%, with only a 1% chance of a 25-basis-point hike. This consensus has solidified over the past month, as the likelihood of a rate hike has decreased from 6.2%.Prediction markets such as Polymarket and Kalshi also reflect strong expectations for no rate changes through the summer. Polymarket traders assign a 93% probability to no rate change at the June meeting, while Kalshi shows an 84% chance of a hold in July. The March 2026 Consumer Price Index (CPI) reading of 3.3% and an unemployment rate of 4.3% have contributed to the consensus that the Fed will maintain its current policy stance.