XRP extended its November-start price decline on Tuesday, falling more than 9% in the aftermath of Ripple’s annual Swell conference in New York. 

Ripple’s two-day Swell event, held from November 4 to 5, had initially given markets a taste of optimism as the company revealed several “positive” developments. The Manhattan venue-hosted event featured the announcement of a $500 million funding round led by Citadel Securities and Fortress Investment Group, Cryptopolitan reported.

Much to the dismay of XRP bulls, market participants “bought the rumors, and sold the news,” causing the asset to drop to around $2.19 by early Tuesday trading. XRP has since regained some ground and shot back up to $2.30, but is facing rejections at the $2.40 level despite the Swell event’s purported success.

XRP sentiment flips bearish after Swell announcements, with low impact

The pullback extended its month-long slide, adding to a four-year streak of XRP posting negative returns between the Swell conference and year-end. TradingView chart analysis shows that XRP may be entering a new bearish phase after failing to sustain a price surge beyond $2.5 for over a week. 

The token has been trading within a “Channel Up” formation that began after the March 2020 COVID-19 market crash, but that momentum is clearly waning. Analyst TradingShot believes a breakdown below the one-week 50-day moving average is a sign that the bullish cycle that began in July, taking XRP to a 4-year high of $3.50, is ending.

Last month’s market-wide flash crash briefly sent XRP down to test its one-week 100-day moving average, before a quick recovery helped stabilize prices. Yet the failure to reclaim the $2.5 price level has revived comparisons to the 2021 post-peak correction that followed XRP’s last major rally. 

At that time, XRP had also completed a run above $3.5 before turning lower, much similar to the technical setup seen in recent months. The token has already filled the 2.5 Fibonacci extension level with its July 14 multi-year high, the exact pricing level where the April 2021 cycle topped. 

When XRP closed a week below $1 in November 2021, it started a sustained bearish period that took traders months to turn bullish. The similarities between the current relative strength index (RSI) readings and those recorded then is evidence that the token may be preparing for another leg lower.

Weekend price breakout fails to hold, traders still ‘selling the news’

XRP briefly staged a breakout late Friday that made bulls excited for the weekend, hoping more positive price steps will ensue before another dreaded November business week commences. 

On Saturday, XRP rose 3.6% to reach $2.31, pushing above the previous psychological resistance level at $2.28, against the backdrop of ETF submission amendments from Canary, Bitwise, and Franklin Templeton.

Heavy trading volume flashed on CoinGecko of about 165 million XRP, an 86% jump above the daily average. The surge suggested that larger players were once again active, fueling hopes of a sustained rally. 

XRP consolidated between $2.32 and $2.35, a narrow $0.19 range, gaining traction after clearing resistance levels at $2.22 and $2.28 in a single high-volume move around 16:00 UTC Friday.

Market depth data from exchanges showed buyers repeatedly defending the $2.309–$2.310 price levels, absorbing short-term sell pressure and keeping the order books balanced. 

But the strength faded quickly as macro sentiment and post-event profit-taking took over. XRP’s ability to hold above $2.30 will determine if the fourth largest coin by market cap continues rallying, or falls apart and away back to $2.1 

Despite the bearish undertones, traders are keeping watch of the progress on the proposed Canary XRP exchange-traded fund (ETF). If the fund’s registration advances automatically under Section 8(a) of the Securities Act, XRP will become the next top 10 ranking market cap crypto with a US-listed spot product.

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