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Crypto analyst Caleb Franzen shared a comprehensive assessment of Bitcoin’s recent price movements. According to Franzen, while the current bullish attempt differs in some aspects from the failed breakout attempts in January 2026, it is still too early to say that a new bull market has begun.

Franzen noted that the first notable difference in the technical structure is the quality of the breakout. Recalling that the bullish attempt seen in January 2026 quickly failed, the analyst stated that in the current situation, Bitcoin has turned resistance into support and formed a higher peak compared to mid-April. He argued that this development is a “constructive” signal.

Franzen also noted the importance of the time factor, stating that the previous recovery after the November 2025 low lasted 54 days, while the current rally has been ongoing for 78 days. Although this extended duration is considered a positive development, it is not sufficient on its own to confirm a trend reversal.

The analyst particularly highlighted the exponential moving averages (EMAs). Franzen noted that the 21-day EMA crossing above the 55-day EMA was an unprecedented development, and stated that these bands (21-55-100 EMA) should now be monitored as critical support levels. He added that maintaining these levels during a potential pullback would be crucial for a bullish scenario.

On the other hand, it was noted that some key indicators still maintain a weak outlook. Franzen stated that the 100 and 200-day EMA bands could still be a strong resistance zone, and emphasized that the weekly EMA structure also points to a downtrend. The fact that short-term averages remain below long-term averages indicates that the market is still in a bearish state.

Franzen also noted that Bitcoin’s annual return is currently around -18%, indicating a continuation of the downward trend. According to the analyst, remaining below the 2-day 200-day moving average cloud, one of the most critical indicators, shows that the bear market is not yet over. He recalled that historically, a break above this level has confirmed the start of a new bull trend.

In conclusion, while Franzen acknowledged that recent price movements contain positive signals, he stated that the overall outlook still suggests caution.

However, he believes the current rise is most likely a “relief rally” and that the bear market continues until proven otherwise.

*This is not investment advice.

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